A monthly business conditions index suggests Wyoming's economy is slipping into recession.

For the first time since the survey of state supply managers began in 1994, a leading indicator produced by the Denver-based Goss Institute of Economic Research dropped below growth neutral for three consecutive months.

"Demand for the state's mining output will weaken in the months ahead as the global recession intensifies. However, I expect Wyoming's recession to be shallow and short," institute director Ernie Goss said in a press release.

The Wyoming index rose to 44.8 in February, up from 35.3 in January. In December, the index stood at 47.5. An index of 50 is considered growth neutral, while a number greater than 50 portends an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Individual components of the overall state index were new orders at 30.0, production at 43.8, delivery lead time at 68.8, inventories at 37.5 and employment at 43.8.

The business conditions index for the Mountain States region rebounded from January's record low, but still pointed to more job losses in the months ahead. The region consists of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming.

"For the fourth straight month, the index dipped below growth neutral. Until recently, growth in the region's large energy sector had bolstered growth in the region. However, a weakening manufacturing sector, especially for firms heavily dependent on international sales, has pushed the region firmly into recession territory," Goss said.

A downturn in the regional prices-paid index also has accompanied the slower economy. The index, which tracks the cost of raw materials and supplies, stood at 48.4 in February, but was up from a record-low 35.2 in January.

"The rapid global economic downturn has produced a substantial slide in wholesale prices," Goss said.

The Goss Institute also asked supply managers in the region their opinion of the economic stimulus package recently passed by Congress. Only 3 percent thought the spending will be effective, or very effective, in pushing the economy into growth territory. Most were ambivalent about its effectiveness.

Contact Business Editor Tom Mast at 307-266-0574 or tom.mast@trib.com