Japan will lift a 13-month ban and begin importing American beef this year, and possibly as soon as this summer, Japan's Deputy Consul-General in Denver said Tuesday.

"This issue also will be solved in a short time," Kenichi Kimiya said. "Many Japanese people are expecting U.S. beef."

Kimiya was in Casper at the invitation of Honorary Consul General Mako Miller to help her plan the 10th annual Japan arts day here in September and to speak to Casper College students, he said.

He is second in rank to Consul-General Yuzo Ota at the Denver office, which serves Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico, he said. About 10,000 Japanese citizens live in this region, and about 250 live in Wyoming, he added.

Japan is Wyoming's third largest trading partner, Kimiya said.

But the cattle industry in Wyoming and elsewhere still reels from the December 2003 discovery of mad cow disease - bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or BSE - in a Holstein in Washington state.

Japan, which immediately banned U.S. beef, had been the world leader at $1.3 billion a year in importing the product.

In September 2004, Japan eased its opposition to the ban if American officials could guarantee that the cattle were no older than 20 months at slaughter, according to reports from the Associated Press.

Talks have continued, and they're about to pay off, Kimiya said.

Japan has not set a firm date to resume U.S. beef imports, he said.

"Nobody predicts, but I personally think that it will be this summer," Kimiya said.

Wyoming's nearly $1.2 billion cattle and calf industry leads the state's agricultural sector, said Cindy Garretson-Weibel, the agribusiness director for the Wyoming Business Council.

Both she and Business Council CEO Tucker Fagan knew that the U.S. Department of Agriculture had been negotiating with Japan to reopen the beef market, they said.

"We expect the market to get better for Wyoming beef producers," Fagan said.

However, neither he nor anyone else can determine how much Wyoming beef goes to Japan because the state's cattle go to out-of-state packers that do not identify the product's origins, he said.

While Japan and the United States aren't enjoying a steak dinner yet, Kimiya said the two nations already share high trade deficits and their respective emergences from recessions.

For example, Denver until recently fielded between 70 and 80 Japanese businesses mostly specializing in information technology, he said.

But all but 25 of them have closed their doors, as has the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), Kimiya said.

Japan now is emerging slowly from its recession, but has a way to go, he said.

Both the United States and Japan also face increasing competition from China, Kimiya said. "Maybe we have to keep an eye to China more."

Trona travails

Japan's, Wyoming's and China's fortunes are about to meet over trona.

More than 90 percent of the soda ash produced in the U.S and just under 40 percent of the world's supply of natural soda ash comes from the trona mines in Sweetwater County in southwest Wyoming. Soda ash is used in the production of glass, detergents and baking soda and in a variety of industrial processes.

But China recently surpassed Wyoming in its production of soda ash, especially in production of the synthetic product.

Critics of that country's industry, such as Sen. Craig Thomas, R-Wyo., cite cheap labor and lax pollution laws as the reason for the market shift.

China's growth in soda ash production could be attractive to Japanese industry, Kimiya said. "It can be a possibility that Japanese enterprises will go to China because of its closeness."

Fagan admits that the proximity between the two countries will result in more trade and possibly result in a reduction in Wyoming's exports to Japan.

Colorado, Kimiya said, holds a trade advantage with Japan because it has a business office in Toyko.

Wyoming, responded Fagan, still needs to develop before taking such a step in the international arena.

"When we take that step, it's going to take a lot of analysis," Fagan said. "We're not there yet."

Reporter Tom Morton can be reached at (307) 266-0592, or at Tom.Morton@casperstartribune.net.