Since Fidel Castro took over the golden sands and exquisite green mountains of Cuba exactly half a century ago, I have been peppered with the question: "When will Fidel make peace with us?"

My answer has always been the same, one word: "Never!" Formed and fed by livid anti-gringo generations before him, Fidel lived for his animosity against the Americanos. It has made him a towering figure on the world stage. If Fidel had been a friend to America, he would have been a nobody -- and Fidel was never going to be a nobody.

But now, one can say seriously that there appear to be real indications that Cuba, if not Fidel, is beginning to change -- and at a time when other leftist regimes in Latin America are opting to go the failed Cuban way.

At 83, Fidel now writes newspaper columns and recently oversaw a new dictionary of El Comandante's teachings. Cubans can look up parts of his endless speeches and tirades in a 339-page paperback, which gives his original socialist interpretations of everything from "unemployment" to "history."

This is not the old Fidel, hyperactively aggressive in the foreground of history, but rather Fidel fading into the background of political life. He has scarcely been seen in public for three years and, in recent months, his brother and successor, Raul Castro, has been taking some stunning steps for Cuba.

At this year's 26th of July celebration, the 78-year-old Raul actually told the Cuban people that the country has no one to blame but itself for poor farm production and frequent shortages; that the island can't pin all of its problems on Washington's 47-year-old trade embargo; and that the Cubans should take better advantage of a government program begun last year to turn unused state land over to private farmers.

"The land is there; here are the Cubans," he is quoted as saying by The Associated Press, as he pounded the podium in close-to-Fidel style. "It is not a question of yelling, 'Fatherland or death! Down with imperialism! The blockade hurts us.' The land is there, waiting for our efforts."

This is radical parlance, indeed, for Cuba, where Big Brother Fidel Castro early on not only nationalized the land but made the land into a mystical part of his power, while blaming every failure on the Americans. In short, Presidente Raul is not only trying to modernize the economy, but also to dismantle one of the world's most paternalistic societies.

President Barack Obama has said the U.S. is not willing to explore a resumption of diplomatic ties with Cuba until it releases its political prisoners and the Cuban people are allowed democratic freedoms. These are a long way off, by any account.

All of these changes are to be applauded, and for a rare moment in history, changes occurring in Cuba actually parallel those in a new administration in America. Raul Castro, of course, is aging himself, and there is no assurance -- or even any indicators -- as to what sort of a leader or administration will come after him. Still ...

Fidel Castro's takeover of Cuba has been, for most of the last 50 years, "the" revolutionary model for much of the developing world. And ironically, the Cuban model has just come into its own over the last 10 years in Latin America, beginning with Hugo Chavez' "Bolivarian" Venezuela in 1998, followed by similar leaders and regimes in Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua and, now, the chaotic uncertainty of a Fidel-Chavez-type regime in Honduras.

Curiously, with many of their traditionally democratic and free market regimes having failed, these other Latin countries are choosing to go the Cuban way -- just at the time that Cubans are admitting Cuba's revolution has failed to bring a better life to its people.

Nations come to revolutionary forks in the road on their own time schedules. Amazing how little rational or empirical thinking has to do with it.

Georgie Anne Geyer is the author of the biography of Castro: "Guerrilla Prince: the Untold Story of Fidel Castro."