JOAN BARRON Star-Tribune capital bureau | Posted: Tuesday, May 9, 2006 12:00 am
CHEYENNE - A new poll shows six-term Republican U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin leading Democratic challenger Gary Trauner by only four percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
The April 27 survey by Rasmussen Reports, a public opinion research company, involved 500 likely voters in Wyoming.
Wyoming's only U.S. House seat, the report said, is "in play" in this election.
With a 4.5 percent margin of error, the new poll puts the two candidates in a statistical dead heat.
"This becomes one more contest to which the GOP may have to devote resources during an election year in which the party is proving especially vulnerable," the report said.
Cubin, who was first elected to the U.S. House in 1994, is viewed favorably by 49 percent of voters and unfavorably by 47 percent, the report said. Trauner is viewed favorably by 34 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent.
"He's regarded as an unknown by 38 percent," the report said. "Only 5 percent are not sure what to think of Cubin."
The battle for Wyoming's only U.S. House seat is the only interesting statewide race this year, the report said.
The poll showed Wyoming's Democratic governor Dave Freudenthal with 52 percent of the vote to 29 percent for his Republican challenger, Ray Hunkins, a Wheatland lawyer and rancher.
In the U.S. Senate race, Republican incumbent Craig Thomas has 64 percent of the vote compared with 25 percent for Democratic challenger Dale Groutage.
Cubin was traveling late Monday afternoon and could not be reached for comment.
"We are confident we're going to win regardless of what the polls say," said her campaign manager, Bill Maiers.
Other polls analyzed the race differently, he said. He cited a Casper Star-Tribune poll in February that showed Cubin with 54 percent of the vote among registered voters.
Trauner, a 47-year-old entrepreneur who lives in Wilson in Teton County, said Monday he has no intention of altering his campaign plans because of the new poll results. He said he has been walking door to door for the past four months and visited more than 4,000 homes.
"Maybe that's what's doing it, the fact that I've been out there trying to meet folks and let them know I'm going to listen to them," Trauner said Monday afternoon in a telephone interview from his campaign office in Casper.
Cubin, 59, has a Republican primary opponent, Bill Winney, a 56-year-old retired Navy captain and political newcomer now living in Cheyenne.