JACKSON - Although snowpack levels have plummeted in recent weeks, most climatologists predict a white Christmas for most of Wyoming, and say the wide variability is fairly normal.

Since late November, snowpack levels have dropped by about 10 percent statewide, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service. On Nov. 27, the statewide average snow-water equivalent in various basins - the amount of water in the snow - was 80 percent of normal.

For the week ending Friday, the statewide average was 73 percent of normal for this time of the year.

Steve Gray, state climatologist, said there is always "natural variability" within any year.

"But it is a bit of a concern," he said. "We're not seeing anything so far that makes us think we're going to get out of this mess."

Gray said there are two main concerns. One, that the soil is so dry it will take a lot of moisture to adequately help plants. And, Gray said the situation on the North Platte is fairly dire, and the reservoirs in that area are severely depleted.

"The margin of safety is pretty much gone in the North Platte basin," Gray said. "If we get another bad runoff year on top of low reservoir situations, it's serious."

That means irrigators in the summer will have to dramatically reduce water usage, and even recreation and tourism could take a hit, Gray said.

The Pathfinder Reservoir is 22.7 percent full.

By contrast, the Boysen Reservoir in northwest Wyoming, is 64.7 percent full.

Although Gray acknowledged the snowpack levels "are on the dry side of normal," he said it's still early in the winter season.

"We still have a lot of time to make things up here, especially as you look at the state outside the northwest in that the biggest months for precipitation that we have in the east - that comes later on in the winter and then into the spring," he said. "So we've got plenty of time to turn this thing around but it's certainly a situation we need to keep tabs on."

On the National Weather Service's web site, forecasters predict that nearly all of Wyoming will have a white Christmas. All the Wyoming cities listed - Casper, Lander, Laramie, Rock Springs, Sheridan and Worland - will likely have one inch of snow on Christmas. (Visit www.nws.gov/billings and click on "probability of a white Christmas" at the top.)

Katy Branham with the NWS in Riverton said the outlook for more snow is bleak in the next week.

Some snow might fall in the western part of the state throughout the week. East of the Continental Divide there is less of a chance.

Temperatures remain in the 30s throughout much of the week across the state, Branham said.

Reporter Whitney Royster can be reached at (307) 734-0260 or at royster@tribcsp.com.