WASHINGTON - Democrats have high hopes that the Rocky Mountain West might not be quite as rock-solid Republican as many think.
Democrats suffered losses all across the country in 2004 and were roundly criticized as being out of touch with average Americans. But they say hard-fought victories in Colorado, Montana and other mountain states - considered strong GOP territory - showed a glimmer of hope.
The test will come in 2006.
Many say the off-year election will be a chance for Democrats to make important inroads in the region if they can win congressional and gubernatorial races in Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, among other states, and close the margins in other races.
"I think we're on the cusp of great change in this state - and that's true of other (western) states," said Pat Waak, Colorado Democratic Party chairwoman. "The trend now is to build on our successes, rebuild those grass roots and understand every single margin is important."
The hurdle is high for Democrats. Consider:
* Democratic Rep. John Salazar, who holds a vast rural Colorado district, must win a second term.
* Democrats want to pick up House seats in districts held by Republicans where Democratic voters are a majority or where they believe the incumbent is weak, including those of Reps. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., and Marilyn Musgrave, R-Colo.
* And Democrats hope to oust Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., who is running for a third term.
Kyl faces former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson, a wealthy Phoenix-area commercial developer who announced Monday he raised more than $723,000 in the first two weeks of his campaign. But Kyl, who announced his re-election bid this week, already has more than $4 million on hand.
Republicans point out that President Bush won the mountain states in 2004 - even New Mexico and Nevada, where Democrats traditionally are strongest.
Democrats just don't speak the same language as conservative mountain state voters and so have never been able to make much progress there, said Danny Diaz, a Republican National Committee spokesman.
"Democrats can continue to talk a good game, but they have proven incapable of walking a good game," he said.
But Democratic activists say they made important gains in 2004 that show things are changing in the West.
Prominent statewide and local races went to Democrats. They now hold the governor's mansion and the state legislature in Montana. Salazar and his brother, Ken Salazar, won U.S. House and Senate seats in Colorado. Democrats already held governor's seats in Arizona, New Mexico and Wyoming.
"Something's going on in the West," said Kari Chisholm, a political consultant working with a group of former Democratic politicians pushing to focus more resources in the region.
Experts say they might be right.
Nationally, some of the biggest population gains in the last decade have been in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Utah. The states also have rapidly growing Hispanic populations. The movement is changing the region's character.
In addition, the West has never identified strongly with a political party. Colorado, for example, has a large bloc of voters who don't belong to any party, said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster.
Some Democrats have been able to position themselves as libertarian-minded protectors of western values.
Gov. Brian Schweitzer in Montana, for example, has built a coalition of ranchers, hunters and environmentalists who want to protect hunting and farming land from those who would exploit the West's wide-open spaces.
In Colorado, Ciruli said, many believe strict limits on taxation have strained the state's ability to raise money for schools, roads and other needs. Democrats have been able to blame the problems in part on Republican-controlled government,he said.
"By no means has it become a liberal state," Ciruli said. "But it clearly has become a much more competitive state for Democrats."
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hopes to capitalize on scandals plaguing both Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., and former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas, as well as complaints that Bush elevated friends and campaign donors into prominent government positions.
Democrats say the time is right to win the suburban-Denver House seat being vacated by Rep. Bob Beauprez, a Republican running for governor. They also have targeted races in districts held by Reps. Jim Kolbe, R-Ariz., and Jon Porter, R-Nev.
At the same time, however, John Salazar and Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, are on their list of the 10 most endangered Democratic House members.
That illustrates a dilemma the party faces in the West.
Western Democrats say their victories are a model for the national party, which is struggling to engage voters. Yet Democrats who have won in districts outside the big cities - including Salazar and Matheson - have succeeded by separating themselves from the national party.
Matheson, for example, has voted more often with conservative interest groups, such as the Family Research Council and the Christian Coalition, than some Republicans.
"I think we come from a different cut of cloth," said Matheson, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, who says he has been successful by working for his constituents and not adhering to the party line.
Rep. Mark Udall, D-Colo., says successful western Democrats understand the region's diverse "western sensibilities" - they have to combine fiscal responsibility with respect for the environment and an understanding of the needs of rapidly growing cities.
Udall, who is helping recruit House candidates to run in 2006, says he thinks the national party should take a lesson from Democrats' successes in the West. He thinks the region could be the key to help the party win back the White House in 2008.
"This is where we can really compete," he said.
Posted in State-and-regional on Sunday, October 16, 2005 12:00 am
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