Even though I am included among the disappointed 70% of Wyomingites voting for President Trumps re-election, as a statistician, I look at the outcome somewhat differently than many Trump supporters.
Pre-election political polls have been rarely mentioned in connection with discussion, debate and opinion concerning the 2020 presidential election. If poll findings concerning likely voters during the 30 days prior to the November 2020 election were considered the false innuendo about election fraud would have been greatly reduced.
The web site ‘270towin.com’ includes a convenient compilation of more than 80 national polls of likely voters taken during the last 30 days of the 2020 campaign. In short, only one of the 84 polls taken indicated that Trump would win. In other words pre-election polls within all the states pointed to the strong likelihood that Joe Biden would win the popular and electoral vote majority over Donald Trump. That indeed came to pass.
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In fact it could be said that polling data pointed to the fact that the outcome of the election was a foregone conclusion. Understanding this is likely why most of the president’s staff, including his attorney general, discounted the unfounded election fraud accusations that President Trump repeatedly made subsequent to the election and also during the January 6 violent uprisings and speeches. Many who are close to him have testified that President Trump was detached from reality.
Testimony to the Congressional Jan. 6 committee points to the fact that even Trump family members likewise discounted election being stolen as have most who were closely associated with the election aftermath.
Not understanding the inevitability the election loss by the president and his Jan. 6 supporters has left Rep. Cheney in an unfortunate situation concerning her own reelection effort.
It would be a mistake for the voters to not reelect a solid Republican for simply putting her constitutional oath of office ahead of political expediency.
Likewise, it would be an unfortunate outcome if her reelection is prevented by voters that do not understand the foregone conclusion of the 2020 presidential election.